# 02 — Decay Verdict by Campaign
Source: leads_snapshot.db (touches: 2025-03 to 2026-05, mostly Apr-2026+; replies_full: 2025-08 to 2026-05-14).
**Caveat**: `sent_touches` for pre-Apr-2026 is mostly missing (DB seeded ~1 month ago). For peak/decay estimation we use Instantly lifetime stats + raw reply volume as backup signals.

**Tier legend**: A = N≥500 + monotonic. B = N≥500 OR monotonic. C = N<500 hypothesis.

## Ranked summary

| campaign | peak_month | peak_strong% | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe Cloud - Credits - Apollo List | 2026-03 | 2.41 | fading |
| Wideops - Series A-C Finance - Better payment structure | — | — | **Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100… |
| Europe Cloud - Wiz Campaign | 2026-04 | 0.02 | alive (single-month data only) |
| Europe Cloud - AI SRE | 2026-04 | 0.17 | alive (single-month data only) |
| Wideops - Smaller CEOs Founders | — | — | **Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100… |
| Europe Cloud - April 26 - Credits Campaign | 2026-04 | 0.09 | alive (single-month data only) |
| GrowthGrid Evergreen - Cloud Partners 2026-04 | 2026-05 | 0.42 | alive (single-month data only) |
| Wideops - Cloud Credits Testing | — | — | **Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100… |
| Wideops - Europe Low Seniority | — | — | **Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100… |
| Growthgrid - Cloud Partners | — | — | **Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100… |

## Per-campaign monthly tables

### Europe Cloud - Credits - Apollo List  
*angle:* `apollo-credits` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 23631 · *replied:* 370 · *opps:* 50
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02 | — | 166 | 9 | 19 | 21 | 6 | — | — | C |
| 2026-03 | 2117 | 258 | 8 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 0.38 | 2.41 | A |
| 2026-04 | 1444 | 125 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.14 | 1.18 | A |

**Peak:** 2026-03 (2.41% strong_prr). **Half-life:** 2026-04. **Current:** 2026-04 (1.18%). **Verdict:** **fading**.

### Wideops - Series A-C Finance - Better payment structure  
*angle:* `finance-ops` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 10050 · *replied:* 253 · *opps:* 7
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12 | — | 250 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | — | — | C |
| 2026-01 | — | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-02 | — | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-03 | — | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |

**Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100 in `touches`).

### Europe Cloud - Wiz Campaign  
*angle:* `credits` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 2605 · *replied:* 35 · *opps:* 1
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 6392 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | A |
| 2026-05 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | C |

**Peak:** 2026-04 (0.02% strong_prr). **Half-life:** 2026-05. **Current:** 2026-04 (0.02%). **Verdict:** **alive (single-month data only)**.

### Europe Cloud - AI SRE  
*angle:* `ai-sre` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 3345 · *replied:* 34 · *opps:* 4
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | C |
| 2026-02 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | C |
| 2026-03 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | C |
| 2026-04 | 4047 | 39 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.17 | A |
| 2026-05 | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |

**Peak:** 2026-04 (0.17% strong_prr). **Half-life:** not yet reached. **Current:** 2026-04 (0.17%). **Verdict:** **alive (single-month data only)**.

### Wideops - Smaller CEOs Founders  
*angle:* `founders` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 6542 · *replied:* 188 · *opps:* 12
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12 | — | 79 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-01 | — | 134 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 | — | — | C |
| 2026-02 | — | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-03 | — | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-04 | — | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |

**Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100 in `touches`).

### Europe Cloud - April 26 - Credits Campaign  
*angle:* `credits` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 3172 · *replied:* 29 · *opps:* 2
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3235 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | A |
| 2026-05 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | C |

**Peak:** 2026-04 (0.09% strong_prr). **Half-life:** 2026-05. **Current:** 2026-04 (0.09%). **Verdict:** **alive (single-month data only)**.

### GrowthGrid Evergreen - Cloud Partners 2026-04  
*angle:* `gg-evergreen` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 1336 · *replied:* 28 · *opps:* 4
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1456 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.41 | A |
| 2026-05 | 1662 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.42 | A |

**Peak:** 2026-05 (0.42% strong_prr). **Half-life:** not yet reached. **Current:** 2026-05 (0.42%). **Verdict:** **alive (single-month data only)**.

### Wideops - Cloud Credits Testing  
*angle:* `credits` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 4210 · *replied:* 130 · *opps:* 28
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | — | 169 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-02 | — | 25 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | — | — | C |
| 2026-03 | — | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-04 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |

**Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100 in `touches`).

### Wideops - Europe Low Seniority  
*angle:* `unknown` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 3985 · *replied:* 188 · *opps:* 1
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12 | — | 144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-01 | — | 47 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | C |

**Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100 in `touches`).

### Growthgrid - Cloud Partners  
*angle:* `reseller` · *Instantly lifetime sent:* 2800 · *replied:* 54 · *opps:* 12
| month | sent | replies | pos | soft | mtg_cls | crm_mtg | prr% | strong% | tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | — | 91 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | — | C |
| 2026-04 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | C |

**Decay verdict:** insufficient data (no month with sent≥100 in `touches`).